Possible scenario
Contained Gulf Disruption
30% Chance
The Hormuz blockade continues to impede southern exports, but it does not fully shut Iraq out of the market. Baghdad uses naval escorts, storage drawdowns and limited northern flows to keep exports near September's average, while OPEC+ avoids changing Iraq's quota.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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