Possible scenario
U.S. Tariff Friction
25% Chance
The U.S. tariff review becomes the main risk around otherwise strong Taiwan export data. Policy uncertainty affects semiconductors, AI servers, and electronics assembly more than the broader economy.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.9%
- Industrials -0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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