Possible scenario
Official Reassurance Works
20% Chance
Regulators and large-bank executives move quickly to prevent a confidence spiral. Clear statements on liquidity, deposits and capital planning reassure investors that the selloff does not require a 2023-style guarantee program.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +4.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.7%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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