Possible scenario
Credit Losses Deepen
27% Chance
The selloff proves to be a warning about worsening credit quality rather than only valuation. Investors focus on commercial real estate, credit-card delinquencies and loan exposures linked to AI infrastructure spending.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -4.0%
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.3%
- Technology -0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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