Possible scenario
Contained Bank Selloff
38% Chance
The most likely outcome is that the move is treated as a sharp correction after crowded positioning, not the start of a deposit or solvency crisis. Large banks point to capital, liquidity and unrealized-loss disclosures to distinguish the episode from the 2023 regional-bank panic.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +1.9%
- Technology +0.5%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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