Possible scenario
EU Deadlock Persists
20% Chance
Belgium, Hungary, Slovakia, or another EU member could prevent unanimous agreement on using frozen Russian assets, citing legal exposure, retaliation risks, or budget politics. Ukraine would face renewed uncertainty over external financing, but the market impact would likely remain moderate because the debate has been ongoing for years.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.4%
- Industrials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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