Lawler Holds Seat

Mike Lawler converts his narrow internal-poll lead into a general-election win, helped by incumbency, crossover voters, and Jared Golden's endorsement. Cait Conley keeps the race close but falls short in enough Hudson Valley and suburban precincts to leave Lawler certified as the winner.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.