Possible scenario
Energy Drag Returns
24% Chance
The August industrial output beat is overshadowed by renewed pressure from elevated European gas prices after the Iran conflict. Energy-intensive chemicals, metals and building-materials producers remain vulnerable even if headline output has improved.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials -0.2%
- Utilities -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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