Possible scenario
Rogers Rebounds Late
32% Chance
Mike Rogers consolidates Republican voters and wins back some independents after the race tightens further. The Fox poll is later seen as a snapshot of a near-tied race rather than evidence of a stable Democratic edge.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.5%
- Finance +0.4%
- Healthcare +0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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