Possible scenario
Recount Fight Emerges
18% Chance
The race remains within a fraction of a percentage point through Election Night and mail-ballot counting. Both campaigns prepare legal teams, and the final result is delayed by canvassing disputes and possible recount petitions.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Healthcare -0.1%
- Finance +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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