Possible scenario
El-Sayed Narrow Win
38% Chance
Abdul El-Sayed's small lead proves durable enough in a highly polarized Michigan electorate. Democratic turnout in Detroit, Ann Arbor, and inner-ring suburbs offsets Mike Rogers' strength in rural counties and exurban areas.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Healthcare -0.4%
- Energy -0.3%
- Utilities +0.2%
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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