Possible scenario
Capacity Crunch Persists
25% Chance
Paid users continue hitting limits faster than expected because GPT-6 Sol and Luna demand exceeds available GPU and power capacity. OpenAI must ration access while prioritizing enterprise contracts, increasing reputational risk around premium subscriptions.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.4%
Tickers
- MSFT-1.0%
- GOOG+0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.