Possible scenario
Talks Resume Quickly
40% Chance
Ukraine uses the walkout to force clarification rather than to abandon diplomacy. The Trump administration narrows the Russian diesel arrangement, while Kyiv returns after receiving assurances that any fuel carveout will not weaken military or financial support.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.4%
- Energy -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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