Possible scenario
Talks Remain Stalled
30% Chance
Kyiv does not formally quit the process but refuses to continue until the Russian fuel arrangement is changed. Washington keeps shuttle diplomacy alive, creating uncertainty without a sharp escalation on the battlefield.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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