Possible scenario
Breakdown And Strikes
20% Chance
The walkout becomes a full rupture after Kyiv concludes that Washington is prioritizing Russian diesel supply over Ukraine’s leverage. Ukraine resumes long-range strikes on Russian refining and logistics assets, raising near-term energy and escalation risks.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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