Possible scenario
China Tensions Intensify
20% Chance
China treats the Greenland security agreement as another step in a U.S.-led effort to reduce dependence on Chinese rare-earth processing. Export-license frictions or retaliatory rhetoric increase the strategic premium for non-China rare-earth projects.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials +1.9%
- Technology -0.5%
Tickers
- +8.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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