Possible scenario
U.S. Escort Escalation
25% Chance
Washington expands naval protection and rules of engagement after repeated attacks despite prior escorts. The key uncertainty is whether the U.S. response remains defensive or moves into direct strikes on IRGC assets.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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