Possible scenario
Attritional Tanker War
40% Chance
The most likely near-term path is continued, calibrated Iranian pressure on Gulf shipping without a full closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran keeps attacks below the threshold that would force a large U.S. strike package, while insurers, shippers, and Gulf exporters adjust operations.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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