Possible scenario
Verification Contains Incident
45% Chance
Independent imagery, UAE rescue accounts, and salvage inspections confirm that the Gem No. 2 fire was extinguished and that Iranian footage overstated the damage. The episode remains serious but markets treat it as a contained maritime-security incident rather than a new supply shock.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.4%
- Energy -0.2%
- Industrials +0.1%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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