Possible scenario
Naval Escort Response
15% Chance
Washington and Gulf partners respond with a more visible maritime-security posture, including escorts, surveillance flights, and deconfliction channels. This can either reassure markets if it reduces attack risk or briefly unsettle them if Iranian patrols test the perimeter.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
- Finance -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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