Possible scenario
Low-Grade Harassment Continues
30% Chance
Iran-linked forces continue calibrated pressure in and around the Strait of Hormuz without fully closing the waterway. The pattern resembles repeated harassment, seizures, or near-misses that lift freight and insurance costs but stop short of a regional naval clash.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.1%
- Consumer Services -0.6%
- Industrials -0.5%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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