Possible scenario
Unrest Spreads Economically
30% Chance
The attack on La Barrique becomes part of a broader pattern of arson, looting, and attacks on visible symbols of wealth and local authority. Disruption spreads from nighttime clashes into transport, retail, and tourism, creating a larger short-term drag on French-facing assets.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.9%
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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