Possible scenario
Security Crackdown Contains
40% Chance
The French government responds to the La Barrique arson and assault by expanding CRS and gendarmerie deployments, using protest bans around central Paris, Lyon, Marseille, and Limoges. Violence remains serious but becomes more localized as arrests rise and courts fast-track riot-related cases.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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