Possible scenario
Macron Faces Crisis
20% Chance
Opposition parties use the La Barrique attack and earlier city-hall burnings to attack Macron's handling of the cost-of-living unrest. The policy response shifts from policing alone to a political fight over emergency powers, fiscal relief, and civil liberties.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.4%
- Consumer Services -0.2%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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