Possible scenario
Capex Backlash Spreads
20% Chance
Equity investors focus on depreciation, cash burn and uncertain AI returns rather than long-term demand. The higher capex outlook becomes a valuation headwind for cloud giants and a risk to suppliers if boards later slow orders.
Initial impacts
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology -2.3%
- Utilities -0.8%
- Industrials -0.7%
- Business Services -0.6%
- Telecommunications -0.5%
- Non-Energy Materials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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