Scenario description
Assume that by the resolution date, the Genesis Mission/National Compute Grid and related subsidized public-sector GPU programs remain materially constrained, pilot-like, or uneven despite the announced credits and subsidized nodes. The initiating change is that the programs begin some form of access or onboarding, but access is limited to demonstrations, small pilots, waitlisted users, narrow eligibility, isolated node availability, governance/testing workflows, or a small number of selected institutions, without evidence of durable broad usage by U.S. government, academic, or military researchers. Exact unavailable rates, queue lengths, credit usage, or node volumes remain explicit unknowns rather than assumed inputs.