Possible scenario
Coercive Pressure Standoff
38% Chance
South Korea implements calibrated military and psychological-pressure measures to compel an apology, but North Korea refuses to accept responsibility. This is the most likely path because both governments have incentives to appear firm while avoiding a direct clash.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
- Consumer Services -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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