Possible scenario
Border Incident Escalates
22% Chance
Retaliatory posturing produces a new tactical incident along the DMZ, such as warning fire, drone incursions, or a patrol confrontation. The escalation remains limited, but it materially increases short-term security risk around the peninsula.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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