Possible scenario
US Enforcement Escalates
38% Chance
Washington treats Bosnia's warning as a counterintelligence and sanctions-enforcement matter rather than a routine lobbying dispute. The most likely path is targeted scrutiny of Republika Srpska-linked payments, FARA filings, and potential sanctions-evasion channels connected to Milorad Dodik's network.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.