Possible scenario
Balkan Security Tightens
20% Chance
Bosnia, the EU, and NATO treat the lobbying revelations as part of a wider Russian effort to destabilize the Dayton settlement. Security measures increase around Republika Srpska institutions, but the base case remains deterrence rather than armed confrontation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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