Possible scenario
Diplomatic standoff deepens
20% Chance
The fresh contact fails to resolve U.S. questions about the researcher death and suspected genetic alteration. This scenario is less about an immediate health crisis and more about mistrust between Washington and Moscow over biosafety transparency.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Healthcare +0.9%
- Consumer Services -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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