Possible scenario
Contained outbreak review
25% Chance
The episode is judged to involve a real plague exposure affecting hospital staff and close contacts, but Russian quarantines prevent wider community transmission. The market effect is mainly a modest public-health risk premium, concentrated in travel and healthcare rather than broad macro assets.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Healthcare +0.8%
- Consumer Services -0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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