Possible scenario
Geopolitical Friction
20% Chance
DeepSeek's rapid funding and IPO plans draw greater attention from Washington and allied governments. The company can still list domestically or in Hong Kong, but investors demand a discount for restrictions on advanced chips, cloud access and overseas sales.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.5%
- Telecommunications -0.1%
Tickers
- NVDA-1.0%
- AMD-0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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