Possible scenario
Blockbuster IPO Track
42% Chance
DeepSeek uses the $12 billion-plus pre-IPO round to lock in cornerstone investors and move toward a 2027 listing. Strong revenue momentum, state-linked capital support and CSRC backing for AI listings make a large Hong Kong or dual-market IPO the most likely path.
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.8%
- Finance +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.