Possible scenario
Permitting Deal Passes
40% Chance
Trump’s offer becomes the basis for a bipartisan permitting package pairing faster reviews for energy infrastructure with resumed offshore wind approvals. Democrats accept the trade because it revives stalled projects, while Republicans secure broader NEPA and transmission-timing changes.
Secondary impacts
- Utilities +1.6%
- Industrials +0.8%
- Energy +0.4%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.3%
Tickers
- D+1.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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