Military Retaliation Cycle

Repeated attacks on ADNOC-linked and other commercial vessels increase pressure on Abu Dhabi and Washington to respond militarily. The retaliation remains calibrated, but the risk of miscalculation rises sharply because IRGC naval assets, UAE ports, and energy infrastructure are all within range.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.