Possible scenario
Court Slows Charters
35% Chance
The ICBA lawsuit gains enough traction to delay or constrain the OCC's crypto trust charter program. Courts often move cautiously when agency authority and banking perimeter questions overlap, especially after prior disputes involving Custodia, Circle, Ripple, Erebor, and Bastion.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.2%
- Finance -0.1%
Tickers
- CRCL-2.7%
- -1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.