Possible scenario
Pilot Validates Avalanche
45% Chance
ICE's test of Avalanche demonstrates sufficient throughput, settlement finality, and compliance controls for a limited NYSE on-chain securities rollout. The most likely path is a controlled launch covering a narrow group of highly liquid equities or ETFs before broader adoption.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.7%
- Finance +0.6%
Tickers
- ICE+3.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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