Possible scenario
Release Holds on Appeal
45% Chance
The most likely path is that Deniz Goktas remains out of custody while the 19-month sentence moves through appeal. Turkish courts often allow politically sensitive convictions to stand while delaying final imprisonment, preserving legal pressure without creating a larger immediate confrontation.
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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