Possible scenario
Diplomatic Containment
27% Chance
The Netherlands keeps the settlement-goods ban in place but works through consular channels to reduce confrontation with Israel. Israel’s revocation of Dutch diplomatic status remains the main retaliatory step, and both sides avoid broader trade or travel restrictions.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.2%
- Business Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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