Possible scenario
Risk-Off Extends
38% Chance
The most likely path is continued deleveraging as investors connect Middle East supply risk with tighter credit conditions for AI infrastructure borrowers. Higher oil keeps inflation risk alive while the AI data-center debt overhang pressures technology and high-yield credit.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- Bitcoin Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -3.4%
- Finance -2.2%
- Energy +1.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.1%
- Utilities -0.5%
Tickers
- CRWV-8.9%
- ORCL-5.4%
- META-3.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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