Possible scenario
Weather Tightens Balance
20% Chance
A colder-than-normal start to winter and weaker wind output increase gas burn for heating and power. The EU avoids systemic failure, but spot prices stay highly sensitive to weather forecasts and LNG competition with Asia.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.3%
- Non-Energy Materials -1.1%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.