Possible scenario
Naval Escalation
25% Chance
Attacks or credible threats force a stronger US-led naval response around Hormuz and nearby tanker routes. Markets price a higher probability of physical supply losses, not just more expensive shipping.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.3%
- Industrials -2.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.9%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.8%
Tickers
- FRO+7.2%
- VLO-5.2%
- INSW+3.3%
- DHT+3.2%
- TTE+1.4%
- XOM+1.4%
- CVX+1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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