Possible scenario
Costs Stay Elevated
45% Chance
Crude freight remains extremely expensive as ship fuel, war-risk insurance, and longer routes keep delivered barrels costly. Most owners continue avoiding the highest-risk lanes near Hormuz unless charterers pay large premiums.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -1.1%
- Energy +1.0%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.5%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.4%
Tickers
- FRO+4.8%
- VLO-3.3%
- INSW+3.3%
- DHT+2.9%
- MPC-1.2%
- TNK+1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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