Possible scenario
Further Hybrid Attacks
30% Chance
Russia-linked networks continue low-deniability operations against Baltic, Polish, or German targets. This path is plausible because the timeline already includes suspected sabotage of pipelines, factories, and a Tallinn defense facility.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Utilities -0.8%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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