Possible scenario
UAE Ties Cool
20% Chance
The leak strains trust between Abu Dhabi and Netanyahu's office, especially if Emirati officials believe Israel ignored or politicized the warning. The relationship remains intact, but some defense, intelligence, and ministerial engagements are delayed.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.