Possible scenario
Abraham Accords Contained
30% Chance
Abu Dhabi and Jerusalem decide that preserving the Abraham Accords and intelligence cooperation is more valuable than public escalation. Both sides manage the leak through private channels, with the UAE emphasizing that the warning was meant to prevent war, not embarrass Netanyahu.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.1%
- Industrials +0.1%
- Technology +0.1%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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