Possible scenario
Rapid All-Clear
48% Chance
The most likely outcome is that the Panama Canal Authority confirms the expanded locks, dams, and navigation channels remain structurally sound. Inspections cause only short operational delays, and the market treats the quake as a near-miss rather than a new global trade shock.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
Tickers
- -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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