Possible scenario
Wider Air Exchange
30% Chance
The damaged RE-3A is treated by Riyadh as proof of direct Iranian escalation, prompting a broader air and missile exchange. U.S. forces help defend Saudi airspace, but Washington initially avoids a full offensive role unless American personnel or assets are hit.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +4.1%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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