Possible scenario
Energy Spillover
18% Chance
The conflict moves from military aircraft and air-defense sites toward energy logistics, shipping lanes, or Saudi export infrastructure. This is less likely than a contained military exchange, but Iran or its partners may try to impose economic costs while avoiding a declared conventional war.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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